Bitcoin was modestly lower early Saturday following the so-called halving, an event that sharply cut the issuance of the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
The price of
has fallen 1.3% to $63,676 over the past 24 hours, holding above $60,000 that it traded at earlier this week amid worries over inflation and the outlook for interest rates as well as concerns over conflict between Israel and Iran.
The “halving,” a change to Bitcoin’s programmatic monetary policy that was completed late Friday, will restrict supply at a time when demand has been rising following the approval of new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Ahead of the halving, Bitcoin’s price already has risen more than 50% this year but remains firmly below its mid-March high near $74,000.
Brian Vendig, president of MJP Wealth Advisors, said that while past events have given Bitcoin prices a boost, he believes Bitcoin “is priced for perfection right now after a very steep run so far this year, and that any price increases resulting from the halving event are likely going to be muted.”
“What makes this current halving event unique is that there are now spot bitcoin ETFs on the market, which is a dynamic that wasn’t in place during prior Bitcoin halving events, and the spot ETFs have certainly increased demand and interest in Bitcoin in recent months,” Vendig added.
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Crypto bulls hope that Bitcoin’s halving will be a catalyst for more gains in the coming weeks and months. After the first three halvings in 2012, 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin went on a strong run. According to CoinDesk, the last halving in May 2020 lifted Bitcoin from $9,500 to $65,000 during the subsequent year.
Thomas Perfumo, head of strategy at Kraken, said Bitcoin prices historically peak 12 months to 18 months after a halving event but noted that the cryptocurrency already hit an all-time high less than two months ago, “which is earlier than in prior market cycles.”
But with Bitcoin prices remaining only 10% to 15% above the prior all-time high, Perfumo said, “Perhaps the market cycle is kicking off earlier, but history suggests we haven’t reached the end of the cycle either.”
Beyond Bitcoin,
—the second-largest crypto by market value—fell 1.5% to $3,045. Smaller tokens were mixed as
fell 1.8% and
gained 3.7%. Memecoins rose slightly with
up 0.2% and
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advancing 0.3%.
Write to Joe Woelfel at joseph.woelfel@barrons.com
