Today’s mortgage rates
Average mortgage rates barely budged yesterday, inching almost imperceptibly higher. They’re now higher than they were a week ago but lower than on Monday evening.
Mortgage rates could move either way next week. That will almost certainly hinge on Tuesday morning’s consumer price index (CPI). If that’s lower than expected, mortgage rates could tumble. But, if it’s higher, they could climb even further.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
| Program | Mortgage Rate | APR* | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conventional 30-year fixed | 7.16% | 7.18% | Unchanged |
| Conventional 15-year fixed | 6.56% | 6.59% | -0.03 |
| Conventional 20-year fixed | 7% | 7.02% | Unchanged |
| Conventional 10-year fixed | 6.45% | 6.48% | +0.04 |
| 30-year fixed FHA | 6.4% | 7.09% | +0.01 |
| 30-year fixed VA | 6.65% | 6.77% | +0.01 |
| 5/1 ARM Conventional | 6.13% | 7.27% | Unchanged |
| Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here. | |||
Should you lock a mortgage rate today?
If I were you, I’d lock my mortgage rates soon (perhaps on Tuesday morning) if I were closing in mid-March or before. But I’d be tempted to float for a while if I had a later closing date.
Of course, I can’t predict the future. But it looks to me (and many economists who study mortgage rates) as if these rates are likely to begin to fall gently and consistently fairly soon. But we’re struggling to identify precisely how soon.
It could be as early as next Tuesday if that morning’s inflation report shows price rises slowing further. But it could be May or June or even later if future economic reports are unfriendly.
Indeed, nobody can promise that sustained falls will happen at all. All I can do is provide you with the most likely scenario as I see it.
So, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
- LOCK if closing in 7 days
- LOCK if closing in 15 days
- LOCK if closing in 30 days
- FLOAT if closing in 45 days
- FLOAT if closing in 60 days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
What’s moving current mortgage rates
This week
I was hoping for a bigger bounce down following Monday’s and the previous Friday’s sharp rises. But the bounce was modest and gained back less than 25% of mortgage rates’ losses on those days.
The rises were a response to the January jobs report, which was spectacularly strong. The only monthly report that can be as consequential for those rates is the consumer price index (CPI).
Inflation reports next week
And January’s CPI is scheduled to land next Tuesday. If it’s as spectacularly good as the jobs report was bad for mortgage rates (great for the economy), we could see those rates tumble that day.
I doubt it will be that wonderful, though I clearly can’t be sure. But, if it beats market expectations, that could be enough to see those rates fall.
So what are markets expecting? MarketWatch says the four key figures are:
| January measure | Markets expect | December actual |
| All-items CPI change in January | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Core CPI* change in January | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| All-items CPI change over 12 months ending Jan. 31 | 2.9% | 3.4% |
| Core CPI* change over 12 months ending Jan. 31 | 3.7% | 3.9% |
* Core CPI is the all-items CPI after volatile food and energy prices have been stripped out
The CPI report is likely to dominate the week, putting other reports in its shadow. But there are a couple of other inflation reports on next week’s calendar.
The import price index (IPI) is due on Thursday and the producer price index (PPI) should land on Friday.
Other economic reports next week
The other important report next week covers retail sales in January and is due on Thursday. Markets are expecting those sales to contract to -0.2% from 0.6% in December.
So, we need an even smaller figure than -0.2% to see mortgage rates fall in response. And that seems a big ask to me. But fingers crossed I’m wrong.
There are several other reports next week, but those only rarely move mortgage rates far or for long. They’re listed below.
Economic reports next week
See above for details about the more important economic reports next week.
In the following list of next week’s reports, only those in bold typically have the potential to affect mortgage rates appreciably. The others probably won’t have much impact unless they contain shockingly good or bad data.
- Monday — January Federal budget
- Tuesday — January consumer price index
- Wednesday — Nothing
- Thursday — January retail sales. Also the import price index, industrial production, and capacity utilization, all for that month. Plus initial jobless claims for the week ending Feb. 10
- Friday — Producer price index, along with housing starts and building permits, all for January. Also preliminary consumer sentiment index for February
Tuesday is by far the most important day.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Mortgage rates forecast for next week
Mortgage rates are unpredictable next week. Sorry, but they just are. Ask me again on Tuesday.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
A bond market generally determines mortgage and refinance rates. It’s the one where trading in mortgage-backed securities takes place.
And that’s highly dependent on the economy. So mortgage rates tend to be high when things are going well and low when the economy’s in trouble. But inflation rates can undermine those tendencies.
Your part
But you play a big part in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And you can affect it significantly by:
- Shopping around for your best mortgage rate — They vary widely from lender to lender
- Boosting your credit score — Even a small bump can make a big difference to your rate and payments
- Saving the biggest down payment you can — Lenders like you to have real skin in this game
- Keeping your other borrowing modest — The lower your other monthly commitments, the bigger the mortgage you can afford
- Choosing your mortgage carefully — Are you better off with a conventional, conforming, FHA, VA, USDA, jumbo or another loan?
Time spent getting these ducks in a row can see you winning lower rates.
Remember, they’re not just a mortgage rate
Be sure to count all your forthcoming homeownership costs when you’re working out how big a mortgage you can afford. So, focus on something called you “PITI.” That stands for:
- Principal — Pays down the amount you borrowed
- Interest — The price of borrowing
- Taxes — Specifically property taxes
- Insurance — Specifically homeowners insurance
Our mortgage calculator can help with these.
Depending on your type of mortgage and the size of your down payment, you may have to pay mortgage insurance, too. And that can easily run into three figures every month.
But there are other potential costs. So, you’ll have to pay homeowners association dues if you choose to live somewhere with an HOA. And, wherever you live, you should expect repairs and maintenance costs. There’s no landlord to call when things go wrong!
Finally, you’ll find it hard to forget closing costs. You can see those reflected in the annual percentage rate (APR) that lenders will quote you. Because that effectively spreads them out over your loan’s term, making that rate higher than your straight mortgage rate.
But you may be able to get help with those closing costs and your down payment, especially if you’re a first-time buyer. Read:
Down payment assistance programs in every state for 2023
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
