F.N.B Corp. (FNB – Free Report) is well-poised for revenue growth on the back of steady loan demand and strong fee income. Higher interest rates and a strong balance sheet position will continue to support its financials. However, rising expenses and weak asset quality remain major near-term concerns.
F.N.B. Corp. is focused on its revenue growth strategy. The company’s revenues witnessed a five-year (2018-2023) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4%, despite recording a decline in 2021 due to lower rates and a dismal lending scenario. Net loans saw a CAGR of 7.8% over the same time frame. The bank is strategizing to bolster non-interest income (16.2% of total net revenues in 2023) by enhancing its product suite and expanding services. In December 2023, the company implemented a balance sheet management strategy to further enhance future profitability and improve capital positioning.
These efforts, along with decent loan demand, are likely to support the top line. We expect NII to decline slightly this year and then rebound and grow 1.9% in 2025. Also, our estimate for non-interest income suggests a jump of 28.7% in 2024, while net loans and leases are projected to rise 14.6%.
The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023 to control inflation and is likely to maintain the high interest rates in the near term. Supported by the higher interest rates, F.N.B Corp.’s net interest margin (NIM) is expected to keep improving. However, rising deposit costs will exert pressure on it. In 2023, NIM increased to 3.35% from 3.03% in 2022 and 2.68% in 2021. We project NIM to be 3.11% in 2024 as higher funding costs will weigh on it.
FNB currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Shares of the company have gained 7.1% over the past three months compared with the industry’s growth of 1.3%.
Despite the above-mentioned tailwinds, F.N.B. Corp.’s expenses have remained elevated over the past several years. Total non-interest expenses witnessed a CAGR of 5.7% in the past five years (2018-2023). Overall costs are expected to remain elevated as the company continues to invest in franchises, digitize operations and grow inorganically. Though we expect non-interest expenses to decline 2% in 2024, the metric will trend upward in 2025 and 2026.
FNB’s asset quality has been deteriorating over the past few years. Although the provision for credit losses declined in 2021, it increased substantially in 2020, 2022 and 2023 as the company continued to build reserves to combat the tough operating environment. The expectations of the economic slowdown are likely to keep provisions high in the near term. We expect provisions to increase 18.3% in 2024.
Stocks to Consider
Some better-ranked bank stocks are Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC – Free Report) and First Community Corporation (FCCO – Free Report) .
Simmons First’s earnings estimates for the current year have moved north by 7.6% in the past 60 days. The company’s shares have gained 11.9% over the past three months. At present, SFNC sports a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
First Community’s 2024 earnings estimates have been revised upward by 5.4% in the past two months. The stock has gained 1.9% over the past six months. Currently, FCCO sports a Zacks Rank #1.
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