February 29, 2024
Investors

Are Investors Undervaluing Antero Resources Corporation (NYSE:AR) By 27%?


Key Insights

  • The projected fair value for Antero Resources is US$29.91 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Antero Resources is estimated to be 27% undervalued based on current share price of US$21.89
  • Our fair value estimate is 7.0% higher than Antero Resources’ analyst price target of US$27.94

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Antero Resources Corporation (NYSE:AR) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Antero Resources

The Calculation

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second ‘steady growth’ period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today’s dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2024202520262027202820292030203120322033
Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$297.2mUS$1.03bUS$866.1mUS$820.4mUS$841.4mUS$807.0mUS$789.3mUS$782.5mUS$782.9mUS$788.4m
Growth Rate Estimate SourceAnalyst x4Analyst x4Analyst x4Analyst x2Analyst x2Est @ -4.08%Est @ -2.19%Est @ -0.87%Est @ 0.06%Est @ 0.71%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 9.8% US$271US$853US$655US$565US$528US$462US$412US$372US$339US$311

(“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$4.8b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year ‘growth’ period, we discount future cash flows to today’s value, using a cost of equity of 9.8%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$788m× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (9.8%– 2.2%) = US$11b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$11b÷ ( 1 + 9.8%)10= US$4.2b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$9.0b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$21.9, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 27% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

NYSE:AR Discounted Cash Flow February 5th 2024

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don’t agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at Antero Resources as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 9.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.506. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Antero Resources

Strength

  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
Weakness

  • Earnings declined over the past year.
Opportunity

  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 4 years.
  • Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat

  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company’s cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Antero Resources, we’ve put together three important factors you should explore:

  1. Financial Health: Does AR have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
  2. Future Earnings: How does AR’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Valuation is complex, but we’re helping make it simple.

Find out whether Antero Resources is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.



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