February 25, 2024
Investment

Is Avantor (NYSE:AVTR) A Risky Investment?


Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, ‘The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about… and every practical investor I know worries about.’ So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Avantor, Inc. (NYSE:AVTR) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

View our latest analysis for Avantor

What Is Avantor’s Net Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Avantor had debt of US$5.56b at the end of September 2023, a reduction from US$6.12b over a year. On the flip side, it has US$265.4m in cash leading to net debt of about US$5.29b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
NYSE:AVTR Debt to Equity History February 11th 2024

A Look At Avantor’s Liabilities

According to the last reported balance sheet, Avantor had liabilities of US$1.49b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$6.21b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of US$265.4m and US$1.15b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$6.28b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Avantor has a huge market capitalization of US$15.7b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But it’s clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Avantor has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.9 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 3.3 times. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we’d stop short of calling them problematic. Worse, Avantor’s EBIT was down 21% over the last year. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball’s chance in hell of paying off that debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Avantor’s ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Avantor produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 75% of its EBIT, about what we’d expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

Avantor’s EBIT growth rate was a real negative on this analysis, although the other factors we considered cast it in a significantly better light. For example its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was refreshing. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that Avantor is taking some risks with its use of debt. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn’t really want to see it increase from here. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We’ve identified 3 warning signs with Avantor (at least 1 which is potentially serious) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Of course, if you’re the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don’t hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

Valuation is complex, but we’re helping make it simple.

Find out whether Avantor is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.



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