US futures rise with Powell on deck again

US stock futures stepped higher on Thursday, staying upbeat ahead of a second day of closely tracked testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Techs took the lead again with a 0.4% gain for Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) futures, while S&P 500 (^GSPC) futures added 0.2%. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) wavered along the flatline, after all three gauges ended the previous session in the green.

Stocks rose as the market assessed Powell’s first day of questioning by lawmakers on the economy and monetary policy, which brought no bad news or surprises. The Fed chief stuck to repeating policymakers’ message that they’re in no hurry to ease policy, though he did say rate cuts are likely to come this year.

Meanwhile, gold (GC=F) rose for the fifth day, hitting a fresh high above $2,060 as the prospect of a rate cut gave fresh impetus to the record-setting rally.

Next up is Powell’s appearance in the Senate, which investors are looking to for more clarity and further clues on rate-cut timing. Updates on consumer credit and jobless claims due later will also feed into their calculations ahead of the crucial monthly jobs report on Friday.

Among corporates, shares of Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) plunged over 29% in premarket trading after the lingerie maker’s sales guidance fell short.

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Thu, March 7, 2024 at 5:00 AM PST

Today’s eye-popping analysis of the day…

Maybe it’s time to revisit the Microsoft (MSFT) sell-off.

Over the last 25 trading days, Microsoft shares are off by 0.4% compared to a 4% advance for the S&P 500. The broader Mag 7 has been trading on the shaky side of late, and Microsoft hasn’t been immune.

Some new projections from EvercoreISI analyst Kirk Materne on Microsoft’s AI opportunity could reawaken the bull case.

Here’s what he said in a new note to clients today:

“When aggregating our bottoms up Gen AI analysis and taking a five year view, we now estimate Gen AI could drive ~$82.5 billion in incremental revenue in CY28 for Microsoft based on our ‘base case’ scenario, which represents a 24% uplift to our CY28 revenue estimate (assuming a 9% revenue CAGR from ’23-’28 for ‘core’ Microsoft). This would also represent $5.10 in incremental EPS assuming a 45% incremental net margin – just below incremental margins in prior years. Our ‘bull case’ scenario indicates an incremental revenue opportunity of $142.8 billion and $12.07 in incremental EPS. Our updated CY27 incremental AI revenue estimate of $54.6 billion is $4.2 billion higher than our prior ‘base case’ forecast from June 2023. Bottom line: The AI monetization opportunity is off to a good start but we are still in the very earnings and based on our analysis, we expect Gen AI will keep an upward bias on Microsoft’s revenue and EPS estimates for the foreseeable future.”

Materne rates Microsoft at out-perform with a $475 price target, 17% above current levels.
Thu, March 7, 2024 at 4:30 AM PST

Deutsche Bank gets on board the bitcoin rocket ship

All aboard.

The Deutsche Bank team is out with a note today looking at five reasons why bitcoin prices have a lot more room to run. It’s too early in the day to put you back to sleep by detailing all five reasons, so let me zero in on one: April’s potential bitcoin halving event.

The investment bank is calling attention to the bullish action in bitcoin around prior halving events:

“In the 30 days prior to the November 2012 halving, prices rose by 5%. A more substantial 13% gain was seen ahead of the July 2016 event. Most recently, there was a sizable 27% price increase in the month before the May 2020 halving.”

A helpful timeline chart to see how this has historically played out:

The bitcoin bulls await another halving in April. (Deutsche Bank)