BitcoinBTC, alongside other major cryptocurrencies ethereum, XRPXRP and solana, have suddenly shot higher—rocketing as the Biden administration declares a crypto “emergency.”
The bitcoin price has climbed to around $45,000 per bitcoin, pulling the rest of the crypto market, including ethereum, XRP and solana, along with it just a week after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell quietly primed the crypto market for a major move.
Now, one closely-watched analyst has identified a signal that hasn’t failed bitcoin and crypto traders since 2015.
Bitcoin’s historical halving that’s expected to cause crypto price chaos is just around the corner! Sign up now for the free CryptoCodex—A daily newsletter for traders, investors and the crypto-curious that will keep you ahead of the market
“We are three days away from the start of the Chinese New Year, and historically, when bitcoin was bought three days before and sold ten days after the Chinese New Year, the average return has been 11% for a two-week holding period,” Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, said in emailed comments.
Chinese Luna New Year falls on February 10 in 2024, signalling the start of the 15-day Spring Festival and the beginning of the year of the dragon.
“The lowest return was in 2019, when bitcoin rose 3%, and the strongest was in 2021, when bitcoin rallied 24%. But besides those two ‘outliers,’ bitcoin rallies during Chinese New Year were evenly distributed at around 9% to 13%,” Thielen wrote.
Thielen has predicted the bitcoin price will climb to $52,000 through March and then surge to around $70,000 by the end of the year.
Sign up now for CryptoCodex—A free, daily newsletter for the crypto-curious
Other bitcoin and crypto market watchers have pointed to an expected Federal Reserve interest rate cut, the launch of a fleet of U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), an investment exodus from China due to its market meltdown and bitcoin’s looming April halving supply cut as powering the bitcoin price rally.
“It’s clear that the cryptocurrency market is growing once again,” David Kemmerer, the chief executive of CoinLedger, said in emailed comments alongside research that showed the average crypto investor made almost $900 in 2023, up from an average $7,000 loss in 2022.
“After the collapse of FTX, the cryptocurrency ecosystem saw a free fall in asset prices. This latest rebound highlights the resilience of the industry.”
Follow me on Twitter.
