March 15, 2025

Housing Market Tracker

Mortgage

Mortgage rates head lower, helped by better mortgage spreads

If we took the worst levels of the spreads from 2023 and incorporated those today, mortgage rates would be 0.48% higher right now. While we are far from being average with the spreads, the fact that we have seen this improvement is a plus this year. 10-year yield and mortgage rates  Last week, inflation data

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Mortgage

The housing market is better positioned for lower mortgage rates

Weekly housing inventory data While inventory growth this week slowed to 6,803 — well below my weekly target level of 11,000 -17,000 with elevated mortgage rates — the fact that we hit this target level five times this year versus zero last year is a big reason why 2024 has been a much better year for

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Mortgage

Is mortgage demand really picking up?

Are we seeing the start of a market shift in mortgage demand? Notably, mortgage rates have been gradually declining, and we’ve observed back-to-back positive weeks in purchase application data for the first time since mid-March. While I typically prefer to see a sustained growth of 12-14 weeks before concluding there’s been a sea change, the

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Mortgage

How much longer will we have to deal with higher mortgage rates?

After last week’s jobs week, everything gets more intriguing as each month passes. The labor market has gotten softer but hasn’t broken yet. As we approach the midway point of the year, let’s examine last week’s data. 10-year yield and mortgage rates  Last week, the labor data, a vital driver of the 10-year yield and

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Mortgage

This is a big week for housing, jobs and mortgage rates 

10-year yield and mortgage rates  As we approach a crucial week for mortgage rates, the 10-year yield and labor data could influence the Fed’s decisions. If we witness more softness in the labor market, the 10-year yield and the labor data will eventually force the Fed’s hand. However, the Fed wouldn’t mind seeing mortgage rates

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Mortgage

Are mortgage rates about to fall?

Traditionally speaking, the spreads between the 10-year and mortgage rates is 1.60%-1.80%. Right now, the difference between them is 2.60%. However, compare that to the worst levels last year, when the spread got as high as 3.10%. That’s a 0.50% difference in rates. For the rest of the year, it’s all about the labor market.

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Mortgage

Did lower mortgage rates slow housing inventory growth?

My model for inventory growth with higher mortgage rates came crashing down last week. After two weeks of significant increases, inventory growth slowed dramatically and is far from my 11,000-17,000 growth model with mortgage rates over 7.25%. Did the recent dip in mortgage rates play a role here or is this the average choppy weekly

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