Traditionally speaking, the spreads between the 10-year and mortgage rates is 1.60%-1.80%. Right now, the difference between them is 2.60%. However, compare that to the worst levels last year, when the spread got as high as 3.10%. That’s a 0.50% difference in rates. For the rest of the year, it’s all about the labor market.
My model for inventory growth with higher mortgage rates came crashing down last week. After two weeks of significant increases, inventory growth slowed dramatically and is far from my 11,000-17,000 growth model with mortgage rates over 7.25%. Did the recent dip in mortgage rates play a role here or is this the average choppy weekly
Homebuilder NVR, Inc. saw profit growth slow to begin 2024, but results from both construction and mortgage segments point to sustained interest in newly built properties. The parent company of Ryan Homes, NVHomes and Heartland Homes reported net income of $394.3 million for the three months ending March 31, equivalent to $116.41 per diluted share.
10-year yield and mortgage rates There is nothing good to report on mortgage rates from last week. The chart below shows that we broke the critical technical level on the 10-year yield (marked with a red line). The CPI data, which the Federal Reserve doesn’t track for its 2% target, came in 0.1% hotter than
Mortgage rates had a chance to break to new highs this year, but the Federal Reserve took a moderate tone at the last Fed meeting. We saw the benefit of lower mortgage rates with the last two existing home sales reports, which showed growth. Then mortgage rates rose, facilitating five weeks of negative purchase application
A serious 10-year yield and mortgage rate talk My work on housing moves around the 10-year yield and the economics that move that. The growth rate of inflation has fallen a lot on the year-over-year data, but mortgage rates haven’t gone down, which isn’t surprising to me as my mantra has been: “Labor over Inflation.”
Lenders have renewed interest in establishing ties with builders this spring given the latter’s increased role in supplying available home inventory at a time when many existing owners are still feeling locked in by lower-than-market mortgage rates. What the spring will bring remains to be seen, but so far new-home sales have been higher as