Have lower mortgage rates already started to slow down housing inventory? I have a simple weekly growth model with the Altos inventory data: when rates are high, over 7.25%, inventory should grow between 11,000-17,000 weekly. This has happened six times this year and even though that would be an average inventory growth level with higher
Inventory is slightly down There are currently 651,000 single-family homes unsold on the market around the country. That’s actually just a fraction of a percent fewer than a week ago. Inventory is 38.5% more than a year ago. Still, there are 32% fewer homes on the market now unsold than in 2019. Inventory is growing in
If we took the worst levels of the spreads from 2023 and incorporated those today, mortgage rates would be 0.48% higher right now. While we are far from being average with the spreads, the fact that we have seen this improvement is a plus this year. 10-year yield and mortgage rates Last week, inflation data
Weekly housing inventory data While inventory growth this week slowed to 6,803 — well below my weekly target level of 11,000 -17,000 with elevated mortgage rates — the fact that we hit this target level five times this year versus zero last year is a big reason why 2024 has been a much better year for
Are we seeing the start of a market shift in mortgage demand? Notably, mortgage rates have been gradually declining, and we’ve observed back-to-back positive weeks in purchase application data for the first time since mid-March. While I typically prefer to see a sustained growth of 12-14 weeks before concluding there’s been a sea change, the
After last week’s jobs week, everything gets more intriguing as each month passes. The labor market has gotten softer but hasn’t broken yet. As we approach the midway point of the year, let’s examine last week’s data. 10-year yield and mortgage rates Last week, the labor data, a vital driver of the 10-year yield and
10-year yield and mortgage rates As we approach a crucial week for mortgage rates, the 10-year yield and labor data could influence the Fed’s decisions. If we witness more softness in the labor market, the 10-year yield and the labor data will eventually force the Fed’s hand. However, the Fed wouldn’t mind seeing mortgage rates
Traditionally speaking, the spreads between the 10-year and mortgage rates is 1.60%-1.80%. Right now, the difference between them is 2.60%. However, compare that to the worst levels last year, when the spread got as high as 3.10%. That’s a 0.50% difference in rates. For the rest of the year, it’s all about the labor market.
My model for inventory growth with higher mortgage rates came crashing down last week. After two weeks of significant increases, inventory growth slowed dramatically and is far from my 11,000-17,000 growth model with mortgage rates over 7.25%. Did the recent dip in mortgage rates play a role here or is this the average choppy weekly