For now, I believe it’s a combination of things: lower mortgage rates, new listings data declining and frustrated home sellers taking their homes off the market as they’re not getting the price they wanted. In any case, one thing is for sure: unless mortgage rates rise again, we’ve probably already seen the peak growth rate
10-year yield and mortgage rates In my 2025 forecast, I anticipated the following ranges: Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 7.25% The 10-year yield fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.70% The 10-year yield has fluctuated between approximately 4.79% and 3.87% this year, considering overnight trading within that range. Meanwhile, mortgage rates have varied from 7.25% to 6.50%.
Mortgage spreads In 2023, when mortgage rates reached 8%, the year was hampered by mortgage spreads hitting new cycle highs. Initially, mortgage spreads showed signs of improvement early in the year. However, the Silicon Valley banking crisis caused a spike in spreads and the situation remained challenging throughout the year. In 2024, the spreads began
10-year yield and mortgage rates In my 2025 forecast, I anticipated the following ranges: Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 7.25% The 10-year yield fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.70% We had a lot of drama again last week, with speeches by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other regional Fed presidents, and then President Trump starting
‘Little urgency to cut rates’ The odds of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have steadily dropped during the spring and are a virtual lock to remain unchanged this week. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, 99.8% of interest rate traders think the Fed will leave benchmark rates at a range of 4.25%
Mortgage spreads Mortgage spreads — the difference between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 30-year mortgage rate — are a complex topic. Over the past decade, they haven’t received much attention because spreads were typical and not a concern. Under normal circumstances, the spread typically ranges from 1.60% to 1.80%. A historical review of these
10-year yield and mortgage rates In my 2025 forecast, I anticipated the following ranges: Mortgage rates will be between 5.75% and 7.25% The 10-year yield will fluctuate between 3.80% and 4.70% Last week, we observed a positive trend, as the 10-year yield gradually declined from a high of 4.43% to 4.24%. This drop has also
4 positive readings 3 negative readings 3 flat prints Overall, we’ve seen positive growth year over year with most of the weekly data in 2025. It’s not spectacular and it working from the lowest bar ever, but growth is growth. The purchase application data looks out for about 30 to 90 days, but I wouldn’t