Government Investment in Communities Linked to Declining Crime Rates

PORTLAND, OR — An article by Jeff-Analytics reports that after a sharp surge in murder rates in 2020, the numbers have declined significantly, with notable reductions by 2025. Analyst Jeff Asher has offered several explanations for the patterns behind this drop, particularly in the context of the pandemic and its aftermath.

“In 2023, murder rates fell by 11.6%,” according to the FBI’s Crime Data Explorer. Additionally, the Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI) illustrates graphs and an overview showing a “21.6% change in the murder rates between the years 2024 and 2025.”

“Murder is falling a lot in 26 of the country’s 30 most murderous cities so far in 2025,” Asher reported, noting, “Detroit, New Orleans, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, and Baltimore each reported fewer murders through May than in any year since the 1960s.”

Jeff-Analytics offered a caveat: “There are undoubtedly many factors contributing to the multi-year decline in crime we are experiencing, and it will be a while before the impact of these factors in reducing crime is truly understood.”

In response, the article offered context: “The decline began in 2023 and has been remarkably steady, so the roots of the decline are probably things that happened in 2021, 2022, and 2023 rather than things that started in 2024 or 2025.”

Jeff-Analytics also discussed changes in police staffing: “There are fewer police officers in most big and medium-sized cities now than there were 2 or 3 years ago—and far fewer compared to pre-COVID levels.”

“When I think about the main factors behind declining murder, a strong investment in communities from private and public sources after the shock of the pandemic stands out as a major cause,” Asher stated.

Asher also credited Josh Roman, who reached similar conclusions regarding the 2023 decline in murder rates. Roman argued, “Changes in local government staffing and funding, by contrast, explain both the rise and fall,” adding, “Crime and violence declined in 2023 because local governments finally returned to pre-pandemic employment levels.”

Asher referenced Roman’s research to explore further patterns: “Roman also points to research showing a clear causal effect between nonprofit organizations working in communities and decreasing crime.”

Jeff-Analytics added: “The government’s inability to support communities like normal in 2020 and 2021 may have deepened and prolonged the surge in violence that began in mid-2020 for completely different reasons.”

“For starters, we have RCTs (Randomized Controlled Trials) of policies that try to strengthen social control in communities,” the report continued. “These policies try to get more eyes on the streets by cleaning up vacant lots, fixing abandoned buildings, improving street lighting, opening more stores, or even hiring private unarmed security guards.”

“Conventional wisdom predicts these policies really should not matter much for gun violence,” Jeff-Analytics countered. “The RCTs show that each of these policies can help prevent violence from happening in the first place.”

The report further noted: “Communities didn’t just hire more people and have more money to spend—they put those things together to fix roads and build new facilities aimed at supporting their populations and increasing public safety.”

Citing U.S. Department of Transportation data, Jeff-Analytics reported: “Local and state government construction on highways increased by nearly 20 percent after COVID, by 49 percent on policing and public safety, by nearly 70 percent on lighting, and by more than 80 percent on neighborhood and social centers.”

Additionally, the article elaborated on federal grant funding: “The Department of Justice’s main grant-making arm—the Office of Justice Programs (OJP)—increased grant funds from $3.26 billion in Fiscal Year 2021 to $4.5 billion in Fiscal Year 2023,” Asher noted. “These were targeted programs aimed specifically at reducing violence, increasing analytic capacity, and improving public safety overall.”

Asher also warned of recent cutbacks: “Construction spending on public safety and highways began to plateau in 2024 after huge increases since 2022. And a decline in OJP grantmaking in 2024 was followed by the DOJ canceling around $500 million from more than 370 grants,” Jeff-Analytics stated.

The report expressed concern about the implications: “The grant cancellations run the risk of exacerbating gun violence nationwide.”

Asher concluded: “Crime is dropping at an enormously fast rate, and if or when those trends start to reverse, then many of the tools that likely helped arrest and then reverse the increase last time may not be available.”