If you had planted $10,000 worth of Bitcoin (BTC -1.89%) in a portfolio in 2015, your investment would be worth an eye-popping $4.3 million right now, after the coin’s almost unthinkable growth of nearly 43,000%. It still has plenty of capacity for big growth during the next 10 years, too. The coin’s scarcity, diehard holder base, and newfound status as a darling of institutional investors still make it an appealing purchase today.
History won’t repeat perfectly, but it can rhyme. Could $10,000 invested into Bitcoin right now turn into $1 million by 2035, or will the upside be more limited this time around? Let’s test the numbers and see what’s possible for a long-term investment.
How the math could still work
First, let’s establish the parameters of what needs to happen.
A $10,000 investment can become $1 million only if Bitcoin climbs 100-fold from today’s price. That hurdle looks insurmountable — until you consider the coin’s incredible compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 84% during the last 10 years.
Supply dynamics lend credence to the idea that Bitcoin is going to continue producing new millionaires.
The next halving of the coin’s issuance, projected for April 2028, will drop the block reward to just over 1.5 bitcoins, thereby cutting new issuance in half yet again and further constraining Bitcoin’s newly mined supply. By 2032, the reward is set to shrink to roughly 0.7. Fewer fresh coins with each block will continue to force later buyers to haggle with existing holders. That’s historically a recipe for higher prices, even if there isn’t a large influx of new demand.
Image source: Getty Images.
On that front, demand for the coin is now something driven largely by institutional investors and governments, two of the very largest holders of capital. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) January 2024 green light for Bitcoin-holding exchange-traded funds (ETFs) removed the last barrier to institutional adoption. The implication is that the world’s capital can now get as much Bitcoin exposure as it wants, and so far, it looks like they have a large appetite for it.
Corporate treasuries are now piling in as well. There are currently at least 61 non-crypto public companies that hold Bitcoin. These balance sheet stakes aren’t intended for quick flips, but rather for holding as an asset. So they’ll constrain the coin’s floating supply even further, creating a very favorable environment for the price to zoom upwards.
When combining these factors, it’s still probably a bit optimistic to expect the coin to continue to exhibit its historical CAGR. But that doesn’t mean it won’t still grow at a very quick pace. For what it’s worth, the coin’s CAGR during the past four years is 27%.
The obstacles between here and 2035
Overall, it’s much more reasonable to expect Bitcoin to gain 10-fold between now and 2035, leaving someone who invested $10,000 with about $100,000, than it is to expect such an investment to yield a full $1 million.
Assuming the coin’s four-year CAGR is sustained during the next 10 years, investing $10,000 today would net you around $109,000.
It could still surprise investors to the upside, of course. Still, that’s not something to build your financial planning around, and there are a few risks worth knowing about.
Bitcoin has never faced a mature regulatory regime. The same government that blessed ETFs today could crack down on self-custody or levy punitive taxes if political winds shift, and they very well might. Furthermore, corporate balance sheet accumulation of the asset is two-edged. If Bitcoin slides under $90,000, nearly half the new treasury adopters will sit on unrealized losses, raising headline risk and introducing the specter of forced liquidations.
Technological risk is another (and underrated) risk. Quantum computers capable of breaking Bitcoin’s encryption could arrive sooner than many expect. Some warn that Bitcoin needs a post-quantum security upgrade within five years.
For investors, the antidote for these risks is patience.
Allocate only what fits your risk budget, dollar-cost average (DCA) into your position to tame volatility, and simply don’t look at your portfolio during times of turbulence. If you size your positions assuming a middle-of-the-road growth trajectory, the trek to a position worth $1 million becomes an eventuality, rather than something to worry about rushing toward.
