Bajaj Finance awaits leadership clarity but Morgan Stanley sees up to 10% stock upside

As Bajaj Finance nears a crucial leadership transition, global brokerage firm Morgan Stanley remains bullish on the stock, maintaining an overweight rating with a target price of ₹9,300 per share. The firm has outlined multiple scenarios regarding the future role of Managing Director Rajeev Jain, whose tenure expires on March 31, 2025.

During Bajaj Finance’s Q3 earnings call, Chairman Rajiv Bajaj hinted that Jain might continue in some capacity, subject to board approval. However, with no final decision yet, the coming weeks will be pivotal for the company’s stock performance.

Morgan Stanley’s three scenarios

Jain continues at Bajaj Finance
Morgan Stanley sees this as the most probable outcome, expecting the stock to gain another 5%-10% from current levels.

Jain takes a dual role

In this scenario, Jain would remain involved with Bajaj Finance while also assuming a position at Bajaj Finserv, the parent company. The brokerage expects a similar upside of 5%-10%.

Jain moves solely to Bajaj Finserv

If Jain transitions exclusively to Bajaj Finserv with no active role at Bajaj Finance, the stock could see a 5%-8% downside reaction.

On Monday, Bajaj Finance shares rose 1.89% to close at ₹8,580. The Pune-based financial giant currently holds a market capitalisation of ₹5,31,098 crore and has delivered returns of approximately 16.49% over the past six months.