The U.S. is becoming pro-crypto but prices have yet to respond
One of the biggest mysteries in the cryptoasset sector is, despite the rapid and comprehensive pivot of U.S. policymakers to one of a pro-crypto outlook, why cryptoasset prices have yet to respond decisively and in a sustained manner. These actions include, but are not limited to multiple executive orders connected to the crypto sector – including the formation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve – as well as efforts to rollback Operation Chokepoint 2.0 and other punitive regulatory efforts. Additionally, the first-ever White House Crypto Summit attracted business leaders and investors from across the crypto sector, providing a direct line of communication between the industry and the Executive branch for the first time. In addition, these policy actions and events have been supported by a more bullish narrative from business leaders, legislators, and investors across different economic areas.
With all of these occurrences crypto investors and policy advocates would be forgiven to expect prices and investment funds to be much higher and more positive than have turned out to be true in 2025. So far the opposite has been true, with prices down significantly since initially topping $100,00 following the U.S. election results. Let’s take a look at a few reasons why.
Less Than Expected From The Bitcoin Reserve
Although the long-awaited strategic bitcoin reserve is now a reality via executive order the facts that were disclosed during the E.O. announcement and follow-up interviews have left some members of the crypto community less than impressed. While the U.S. has established both a strategic bitcoin reserve as well as the non-bitcoin digital asset stockpile there are several items worth examining.
First, the bitcoin that will form the SBR will not be comprised – at least as of this writing – of new bitcoin purchases undertaken by the U.S. government. Rather, the bitcoin that are already held by the government as a result of seizures and other enforcement actions have been converted to form the reserve. Second, even though the Treasury and Commerce Secretaries will be looking into budget-neutral reasons to acquire additional bitcoin there was no timeline that was disclosed. Lastly, despite expectations and comments starting that tax code changes would be forthcoming, in the days following the bitcoin reserve announcement there have no such pronouncements.
In short, while the news regarding the SBR was welcomed by the marketplace the specifics have been underwhelming for investors.
ByBit Hack Reignited Fears
Even as the cryptoasset sector continues to move further into the mainstream the specter of hacks, breaches, and other unethical actors in the space continues to cause financial and reputational damage to market sentiment. As the shadow of FTX continues to recede, accelerated by the first batch of payments being made from the estate recently, a new source of fear came to the forefront. Recently the crypto exchange ByBit was hacked by North Korean hacker group Lazarus, resulting in nearly $1.5 billion in cryptoassets being stolen. Headline shock aside this event did nothing to assuage investor fears that crypto organizations are still in the move-fast-and-break-things mindset that permeates tech startups.
While asset management firms and other financial institutions continue to develop products and services for virtually every tier of the investor marketplace the fear of hacks and breaches continue to prove a substantial headwind to price appreciation. Especially since many cryptoassets remain outside of the investor protections and/or insurance policies that have become almost a default setting for well developed financial markets, TradFi offerings continued to be viewed as relatively higher risk versus more traditional offerings.
On-chain assets have long been touted as a secure asset, but as long as large-scale hacks continue to occur it will continue to be difficult to persuade the wider marketplace of this fact.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Last but certainly not least is the continued and apparently increasing macroeconomic uncertainty that continues to permeate the U.S. economy – and by extension – the global financial system. Taking the form of trade wars, tariffs that are enacted and reversed within days, or statements connected to reshoring, nearshoring, or otherwise restructuring the global trade system the implications have been the same. Financial markets have experienced a tumultuous period, even as market leaders such as Apple have pledged to invest hundreds of billions to expand U.S. based operations going forward.
In this sense the cryptoasset sector is trading like other higher-volatility and risk-on assets being driven by headlines and soundbites versus the continued adoption of blockchain-based technologies. With the macro picture set to remain murky for the time being, investors and policy advocates should be prepared to focus on the fundamentals of on-chain asset adoption and investor benefits to mitigate these big picture headwinds.
Crypto is in for a volatile 2025, but investors would be well advised to monitor headwinds and tailwinds alike.
