Cathie Wood, the head of the technology-focused investment firm ARK Invest, doesn’t shy away from making big bets and bold predictions. She is a vocal backer of Tesla, making it clear that she sees its robotaxi and robotics businesses changing the world — and making trillions of dollars doing it.
Her predictions in the crypto market are just as bold, none more so than her Bitcoin (BTC 3.98%) price target. Wood is a huge proponent of the digital coin — and crypto more generally — and was one of the more influential figures in getting spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds approved.
During that process, she said that her firm believed that the token could be worth as much as $1.5 million by the end of the decade. (Her base-case target was $600,000, still not a bad return.)
More recently, she said that she believes that the upper target could be as high as $3.8 million by 2030. That’s a roughly 3,260% return from today’s price and represents a more than a 100% annual return.
The core of Wood’s thesis
The upper boundary of her prediction is substantial, to say the least. So, where does she see this price appreciation coming from? There are a few catalysts, but her main argument is that increased institutional adoption will drive the bulk of it.
Her math is reasonably simple: If institutional investors allocate, on average, 5% of their portfolios, it would be enough for Bitcoin to reach those enormous heights. That may not seem like much, but 5% of all institutional money is a huge amount of capital, and it represents a significant uptick from where we are now. While it’s true we are trending in that direction, there is a long way to go.
Corporate adoption
An interesting trend lately has been the corporate adoption of Bitcoin as a reserve asset. This was pioneered by Michael Saylor and his aptly named Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
The company has pursued an extremely aggressive purchasing program and now sits on 592,100 bitcoins, valued at almost $70 billion. Other high-profile names have since followed suit, including GameStop and Trump Media & Technology Group.
Image Source: Getty Images
Strategy’s strategy is a bold one, to say the least. The company’s core software business has been delivering consistent losses for some time. It is using a mix of debt and private sales of preferred shares to finance its huge buying spree.
Its most recent sale of nearly $1 billion in preferred stock (which comes with a 10% dividend) will cost the company roughly $100 million a year. That’s a big expense considering its total revenue for 2024 was just $463 million. Remember: It’s already operating at a loss.
I am not a fan of the tactic, and I would not recommend investing in Strategy or companies like it that are relying on buying the crypto as their core business model. I think it’s reckless.
Still, these companies may be an extreme vanguard. We could soon see public companies choose to hold more-modest amounts of Bitcoin as a treasury asset.
A solid investment, but beware the hype
Cathie Wood’s predictions for Bitcoin’s upside are certainly headline-grabbing. Investors would do well to take them — and others like them — with a pretty hefty grain of salt.
There’s no denying the upside potential if widespread institutional and corporate adoption accelerates. However, the reality is that most of the larger institutions (where the lion’s share of all capital is managed) will remain cautious, and aggressive corporate balance-sheet allocation from public companies is likely to remain a relatively niche strategy on the whole. Still, I think Bitcoin will continue to grow, just not at the pace Wood suggests.
Investors who are nearing retirement may want to avoid crypto altogether, but for most investors, Bitcoin is a solid addition to a well-diversified portfolio.
Johnny Rice has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
