TLDR
- Liberal Party leader Mark Carney won Canada’s election over pro-crypto Conservative Pierre Poilievre
- Poilievre lost his own parliamentary seat to Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy
- Liberals secured approximately 162 seats, enough for at least a minority government
- Trump’s tariffs and sovereignty threats against Canada heavily influenced the election outcome
- Crypto played a minimal role in the Canadian election despite being important in recent US races
Mark Carney has emerged victorious in Canada’s federal election, defeating Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre who had been a vocal supporter of cryptocurrency. The election outcome represents a dramatic reversal of fortune for Poilievre, who held a substantial lead in polls and prediction markets for over a year before seeing his chances collapse in recent months.
As of early Tuesday morning, Carney’s Liberal Party secured approximately 162 seats according to data from Elections Canada as reported by CBC. This gives the Liberals enough seats to form at least a minority government, though final results may still determine whether they reach the 172-seat threshold needed for a majority.
In a surprising development, Poilievre not only lost the prime ministerial race but also his own parliamentary seat in the Ottawa area riding of Carleton, falling to Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy. This outcome represents a complete reversal from prediction markets like Polymarket, which had given Poilievre an 80% chance of becoming prime minister for much of the past year.
The campaign was heavily influenced by Canada’s increasingly tense relationship with the United States under President Donald Trump. The Conservative leader’s early campaign strategy drew comparisons to Trump, including his “Canada First” slogan and opposition to what he called the Liberal Party’s “radical woke agenda.”
These similarities became a liability after Trump imposed aggressive tariffs on Canadian goods and made statements threatening Canada’s sovereignty. According to polling, 55% of voters believed Carney’s Liberal Party would be better suited to handle the trade dispute with the United States, compared to just 30% who favored the Conservatives’ approach.
The Crypto Factor
Despite Poilievre’s outspoken support for cryptocurrency, the issue played a minimal role in the election. This stands in contrast to recent U.S. races where crypto has become an influential factor.
Poilievre had pledged to make Canada the “blockchain capital of the world” and opposed the creation of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). His pro-crypto stance aligned with Trump, who banned the creation of a digital dollar via executive order early in his term.
Carney, a former governor of both the Bank of England and Bank of Canada, has historically been critical of Bitcoin. In 2018, he stated, “It is not a store of value because it is all over the map. Nobody uses it as a medium of exchange.” Instead, Carney has expressed support for CBDCs.
However, Carney’s current platform did mention that “Canada should lead the world in AI, tech, and digital industries,” though it didn’t specifically address cryptocurrency policy. The lack of focus on crypto during the campaign suggests other issues took precedence for Canadian voters.
Parliamentary Dynamics
If current results hold, the Liberals will fall short of the 172 seats needed for a majority government. Under Canada’s Westminster-inspired system, this means Carney would need support from another opposition party—potentially the Bloc Quebecois or the New Democratic Party—to pass legislation.
The election has generated substantial interest in prediction markets, with Polymarket contracts related to the Canadian election surpassing $100 million in trading volume. These markets reflected the dramatic shift in the candidates’ fortunes, with Poilievre’s chances plummeting from 83% in February to below 50% by late March.
As the new Prime Minister, Carney will face the immediate challenge of managing Canada’s relationship with the United States amid ongoing trade tensions. The election results suggest Canadian voters trust the former central banker to navigate these diplomatic waters, even if it means potentially less favorable conditions for the cryptocurrency industry in Canada.
